Shi Dashenghua (603026): Leading battery carboxylic acid solvent company is expected to grow

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Shi Dashenghua (603026): Leading battery carboxylic acid solvent company is expected to grow
Leading domestic DMC integration company.The company is the first batch of DMC manufacturers in China. In June 2003, the company built a 5,000-ton / year dimethyl carbonate (DMC) production capacity, and then continued to expand its product capacity and upstream raw material capacity.By the end of 2018, the company had a production capacity of dimethyl carbonate series12.5 pcs / year, biofuel production capacity of 20 tons / year, gas separation unit production capacity of 20 tons / year, MTBE production capacity of 40 tons / year, and epoxy resin injection of 4 pcs / year. Dimethyl carbonate series products have stable profits and a high proportion of gross profit.The company’s main products include DMC series, MTBE, liquefied gas, etc. Among them, DMC series products have the highest gross profit margins. In 2018, DMC series products accounted for about 40% of revenue and gross profit accounted for about 80%. From 2016 to 2018, the gross profit rate of products remained stableAbout 22-24%. The new energy automobile industry has entered a period of steady growth.2019 is the first year of the formal evaluation of the dual-point policy. Due to adjustments of some important parameters in the dual-point policy (the ratio of the target value to the target value, the ratio of pure electric vehicle vehicles, the ratio of new energy points, etc.), car companies need to produce moreOnly new energy vehicles can meet the requirements. We expect that the growth rate of new energy production and sales in 2019-2020 will be about 40-80% every other. The cost of compensating for backward slopes is falling, but new energy vehicles are not sensitive to DMC prices.The adjustment of new energy vehicle subsidy policies in 2019 will force costs down.Among new energy vehicles, the cost of the power system accounts for 50%, and the battery accounts for 76% of the cost of the power system, which is the main source of future cost reduction.In the cost of batteries, tungsten accounts for only 5% of battery costs, and fuel solvents account for 30% of fuel costs. Therefore, solvents based on DMC / EC and other major components account for less than 2% of battery costs.Cost accounts for less than 1%, so we believe that the decline in the cost of new energy vehicles and batteries will inevitably lead to a decline in DMC prices, and the relationship between supply and demand of solvents will help product prices rise. Battery-level DMC oligopoly, strong bargaining power.Battery-level DMC oligopoly, Shandong Haike and Shi Dashenghua share nearly 80%, leading pricing and bargaining power, so we believe that the company’s profitability in battery-level DMC field has a moat. Domestic PCs put into production increase demand for industrial-grade DMC.PC has a large number of electronic appliances, sheet metal, and automotive industries. Among them, 深圳桑拿网 non-phosgene method requires DMC as raw material.According to Zhuochuang Information, a large number of PC production capacity will be put into production in the next few years, of which the non-phosgene production capacity is 148.Nominally, 0 is required to produce 1 ton of PC by non-phosgene method.2 tons of DMC, based on which to estimate the new demand of about 30 DMC. Profit forecast and estimation.According to our calculations, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is 1, respectively.96 yuan, 2.33 yuan and 2.64 yuan, combined with the estimates of comparable companies, according to 2019 EPS and 16-20 times PE, we give the company 31.36-39.A reasonable value range of 20 yuan is given a “continuous market” rating. Risk warning: product prices have fallen sharply, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have fallen short of expectations.