Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (002675): High barriers to radionuclide drug heparin business contributed performance flexibility

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Dongcheng Pharmaceutical (002675): High barriers to radionuclide drug heparin business contributed performance flexibility

Investment points: The nuclide market has a good competition pattern and is not affected by centralized mining.

At present, the pharmaceutical sector is affected by 4 + 7 centralized procurement, and the performance of generic drug companies is under pressure.

As a nuclide drug industry with few market participants and high barriers, it is not affected by centralized procurement.

Radionuclide drugs are divided into two categories: therapeutic and detection. Under the background of large-scale medical equipment deployment, detection nuclide drugs can achieve high-speed growth in combination with their own acquisitions and self-built nuclear pharmacies.The annual amount of injection is low, and it mainly treats rheumatoid arthritis with a wide range of indications.

Through the acquisition, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical has achieved 9 billion revenues in the nuclide drug sector, and its long-term development is worth looking forward to.

The consumption of small intestine in pigs has increased, the number of pigs in overlapping pigs has decreased, and the price of heparin APIs is expected to increase.

Heparin raw material dialysis of the pig small intestine, the domestic annual output of about 25 trillion units of heparin, according to the calculation of 2000 pig small intestine per billion units, the heparin industry needs to consume 500 million pay for the pig small intestine.

Domestic pork production volume is 6.

For 900 million pigs, the small intestines of pigs produced by 成都桑拿网 heparin production are mostly from large-scale breeding slaughterhouses, and the small intestines of pigs that are actually convenient to purchase are less than 6.

900 million pay.

At present, the number of slaughter pigs continues to increase. It is expected that the tight supply of pig small intestine in the second half of this year will drive cost-driven price increases in the heparin industry, which will bring incremental profits to Dongcheng Pharmaceutical.

Give “Recommended” rating.

Dongcheng Pharmaceutical is expected to have a net profit of 3 in 2019-2021.

49 billion, 4.

20 billion, 5.

1.3 billion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

44, 0.

52, 0.

64 yuan.

Corresponding to the closing price on June 6, the PE is 25, 21, and 17 times.

Considering that Dongcheng Pharmaceutical’s nuclide business is 天津夜网 scarce and the market is well-competitive, an estimated premium of around 25% is given, with a 12-month target price of 14.

3 yuan, give “recommended” rating.

Risk Warning Goodwill Impairment Risk; Heparin API Price Reduction; Nuclear Pharmacy Expansion Less Than Expected